Mendocino, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

238
FXUS66 KEKA 050759
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1259 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Much warmer and drier than normal conditions will
continue to peak Sunday, Conditions will slowly ease early next week
with rain potential mid week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Interior highs in the low 80s today with minor HeatRisk.

-Chance (50%) of wetting rain showers mid next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will continue to peak today.
On Saturday, the warmest interior valleys managed to reach up to 83
with very dry RH. Clear skies arched all across the area. Weak wind
and clear skies even helped conditions near the coast get close to
70. Near identical conditions will continue Sunday.

There is high confidence that high pressure will gradually weaken by
early next week with a low pressure system moving in along shore.
This will bring still much above average, but slightly cooler
conditions, especially at the coast where marine influence will
resurges.

The path, strength, and moisture associated with this low remains
highly variable. Overall rain chances have decreased slightly
around Wednesday but increased later in the week. Most model
ensemble members show a trough far north of the area mid week with a
cutoff lie meandering along the central coast. This setup provided
high uncertainty, but would be conducive to moisture pulling up the
central alley and generating week storms and showers. Overall
chance of wetting rain remains around 50% with chance of 0.5 inches
now near 5%. Regardless for rain amount , gusty north winds will
build behind any rain late next week. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions with high
clouds is expected for all TAF sites through the period. Light and
variable winds, becoming W at 5-10 kts in the afternoon. HREF model
suggest a shallow marine layer developing across the coastal waters
and pushing onshore Sunday night into Monday, with the potential
of IFR/LIFR ceilings Monday morning for the coastal terminals. /ZVS


&&

.MARINE...Relatively calm conditions are expected to persist
through Tuesday, with light and variable winds and low seas below 5
feet. Northerlies will begin to increase Tuesday night in the wake
of a weak cold front, with moderate to strong breezes possible by
mid-to-late week.

However, there is a high uncertainty regarding the strength of the
northerly winds as a positively tilted cut-off low approaches the
area from the west before tracking southward. Latest GFS and ECMWF
ensembles suggest generally light to gentle breezes persisting
across the waters through mid-week, with moderate to strong breezes
over the outer waters late in the work week. /ZVS


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png